ANALYSIS – Global leaders have done everything in the political arena to compensate for the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. However, they have failed to contain the contagion of Trumpist attitudes in key countries to tackle climate change, particularly in Brazil.
Aided by the technological and market conditions in favor of the energy transition, world leaders tried to get the message across that the world would follow the path followed by Paris and that China would be ready if Trump’s US did not rise to the challenge to take over the position of global leadership, as well as Germany from Merkel and France from Macron.
However, the American absence has not only weakened efforts to collaborate and fund climate action, it has also made blocs of conservative countries more pleasant on the climate agenda to block understanding and even deny climate science.
In 2018, the report of the IPCC (UN Scientific Panel on Climate) submitted to the UN Climate Change Conference was rejected by diplomats from various countries and almost not mentioned in the documents signed at the conference after even more inconvenient truths were revealed: o The The world would have to work three to five times more than agreed in the Paris Agreement to overcome the most catastrophic consequences of the climate.
According to the IPCC’s 2018 conference report, we have a decade to cut CO2 emissions in half.
The tight deadline, which is technically feasible, can slow down current climate change and prevent, for example, the island states from disappearing from the map and north-east Brazil from becoming a desert.
At that meeting, the United States, the country with the highest carbon emissions in history, was already represented by a negationist government of climate science, while Brazil, owner of the largest tropical forest in the world, had just elected the tropical version of Trump as president.
Without being able to count on the United States and Brazil, the account of solving the greatest challenge mankind has ever faced was even more expensive and perhaps priceless to the rest of the world.
With Trump’s defeat in these elections, the world begins to get rid of the phenomenon of negationism in power.
More important than Biden’s victory is Trump’s defeat and with it the destruction of the denial of science and the false dichotomies between development and environmental protection or between the Paris Agreement and job creation – to which Biden reacts the plan for the clean energy revolution, jobs in the field of creates renewable energies.
The political inspirations that Trumpism carried around the world are also fading. And executives who felt comfortable crossing the line of politeness again feel obliged to a certain pragmatism – at least that of the ballot box.
However, we cannot take for granted that the American elections will have a domino effect on Brazilian environmental policy. It is possible that Bolsonaro refuses to change his tone and tries to venture out in inappropriate or even authoritarian ways.
Biden’s statements about willingness to raise funds for the preservation of the Amazon sound like those of French President Emmanuel Macron and are viewed by Bolsonarism as an attack on the sovereignty of the country, fueling conspiracy theories that the world is interested in the internationalization of the Amazon would.
So far, the Bolsonaro government has not responded pragmatically to major signals from countries importing Brazilian raw materials, such as China and the European Union, or even from foreign investors who have threatened to stop investing in the country if deforestation rates in the Amazon remain uncontrolled .
Now pressure from the international community to control deforestation in the Amazon may have more of an impact, as Bolsonaro no longer has any hope of a saving partnership with the United States.
It is worth remembering that the biome is fundamental to regulating the global climate and, through uncontrolled deforestation, it is brought closer to the point of no return when the forest can no longer regenerate and becomes savannah.
The truth of climate science is not that impractical for Brazil. The world is ready to pay for the benefits of a precious resource in Brazil that will be preserved but will remain ours. But to understand that the crisis offers profit and leadership opportunities for Brazil, the country has yet to get rid of the false news and conspiracies sparked by our tropical Trump.